COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 40 Post #967~ NZ COVID-19 PI Day 3/14: Ro Estimates for a theoretical future PI variant ~ Will PI be more infectious than the measles?

Today is Pi Day (14 March) in New Zealand, called Pi Day because in the US 14 March is written 3/14 and Pi ~ 3.14 (3.14159).

We think that the next future COVID-19 variant may be called PI.

On Pi Day (today) we think it may be appropriate to consider values for Ro for a theoretical PI variant (it does not exist yet).

We consider that PI may be more infectious than the measles.

See:

For definitions see the WELCOME menu.

In a previous post we saw that one person infected with Omicron may infect on average 12.5 to 17.5 other people if there is no quarantine/isolation.

We obtained

See:

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 33 Post #960~ NZ OMICRON: Is Omicron as infectious as the measles?

The upper bound for Ro was 17.5.

In the post we re-evaluated our range estimate for Ro for Omicron in New Zealand.

Over a three day period, the number of new cases of COVID-19 almost doubled each day.

We calculated a daily increase of r = 1.908667.

This suggests that for PI the upper bound may bat least 2.

This would mean that PI has the potential to double the number of (new) cases each day.

Using our formula r = 2 this would give Ro = 20. See:
CasesReRoAll

Since the upper bound for Omicron is 17.5, for PI maybe we should start with Ro = 17.

This gives a range for PI of about 3 (17 to 20).

Since Pi ~ 3.14159, lets give the PI variant this range. i.e. The range for PI is 17 to 20.14159, (say 17 to 20.14) .

We obtain

This would make PI more infectious than the measles. See:

For background see:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

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